连续时间完全服务与门限服务两级轮询系统性能研究

在信息分组以连续时间规律到达系统的基础上，对于轮询系统中不同优先级的业务问题，提出区分优先级的两级轮询服务模型。首先，在该模型中，低优先级站点采用门限服务，高优先级站点采用完全服务；然后，在高优先级转低优先级时，将传输服务与转移查询并行处理来降低服务器在查询转换期间所耗费的时间，提高轮询系统的效率；最后，运用马尔可夫链和概率母函数的方法建立了系统的数学模型，通过对数学模型精确解析，得到了连续时间两级服务系统每个站点的平均排队队长和平均等待时间的表达式，精确解析出平均排队队长和平均等待时间的值。仿真实验结果表明：理论计算值与实验仿真值近似相等，说明理论分析正确合理。该模型既能保障低优先级站点服务质量，又能为高优先级站点提供优质服务。     

A review on the features and technologies for energy efficiency of smart grid

In today's world striving for efficiency in every sector, especially power generation and distribution, smart grids emerge as the solution for efficiently meeting the increasing demand. They adjust themselves to optimally deliver energy at the lowest cost and highest quality possible. The grid successfully makes use of renewable energy resources, electric vehicles, and smart pricing techniques in its attempt to achieve energy efficiency. It also promotes a greener environment by striving to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Information communication technology (ICT) helps the grid in collecting consumption data from the consumers and in sharing tariff information. ICT also helps to gather information about the status of the grid with regard to aspects like power quality, faults etc. The purpose of this paper is to review recent literature with a view to comprehensively present the technologies employed in the smart grid for achieving energy efficiency and the challenges involved therein.     

Partial safety factors for laminated glass

Glass plies can be bonded together by polymeric interlayers to form laminated glass. Thanks to the capacity in finding alternative stress paths after partial breakage, it is commonly accepted that the more the layers are, the higher the safety level is. However, a negative aspect is that the tensile strength of glass carries a size effect in terms of surface area, which increases with lamination. Here we evaluate these competing factors by calibrating the partial safety factors to be used in semi-probabilistic (level-I) design, through comparison with probabilistic (level-III) methods in paradigmatic case-studies under wind, snow, and dead weight. Starting from a two-parameter Weibull distribution for glass strength, the “failure modes” approach determines the statistical distribution of strength for a multi-laminate as a function of the number of plies, which interferes with the statistics for actions. As a function of the target probability of failure for the assigned class of consequence, we introduce a new coefficient in the verification formula of level-I, to account for the effects of lamination with dependence upon the number of plies. We find that there is strong gain when passing from a monolith to a two-ply laminate, but the advantage fades by increasing the number of layers. Verification formulas of this type could avoid overconservative design.     

基于深度脊波神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测模型

针对电力系统负荷的非线性预测问题,本文构造了一种基于深度脊波神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测模型。该模型的隐含层采用脊波神经元,神经元的激励函数采用脊波变换函数。对该预测模型采用受限的玻尔兹曼机学习原理进行预训练,最后利用粒子群优化算法对其进行深度优化精调。通过对某地区实际电网负荷系统进行仿真预测,结果表明,与传统的BP神经网络、脊波神经网络和常规深度神经网络模型相对比,深度脊波神经网络预测模型的日平均绝对误差百分比分别降低了1.96%、1.12%和0.3%,日最大绝对误差分别降低了3.91%、2.19%和1.78%,验证了深度脊波神经网络预测模型具有较好的预测准确度和稳定性。     

多堆厂址始发事件分析探讨

多堆厂址一级概率安全评价（PSA）研究中，机组数目的增加使得建模工作量剧增，给整个核电厂的风险评估带来困难。结合已有基础，本文研究了多堆厂址始发事件分析的筛选方法，提出利用堆芯损伤频率（CDF）上下限值评估方法，分析厂址内不同机组数对厂址CDF的影响。结果表明，双机组厂址适合优先进行具体分析。针对双机组核电站，对多堆厂址内各始发事件进行筛选。结果表明，丧失厂外电、丧失热阱等事件适合建模分析，并对其他筛选结果给出后续分析建议，为多堆厂址一级PSA后续事故序列建模工作提供了重要基础。     

Probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) with partition

The probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) introduced in 2016 has solved difficult supervised problems for the “small data” limit where the number N of points in the training set is small. Many extensions have since been proposed, making it possible to deal with increasingly complex cases. However, the performance limit has been observed and explained for applications for which N is very small and for which the dimension of the diffusion-map basis is close to N. For these cases, we propose a novel extension based on the introduction of a partition in independent random vectors. We take advantage of this development to present improvements of the PLoM such as a simplified algorithm for constructing the diffusion-map basis and a new mathematical result for quantifying the concentration of the probability measure in terms of a probability upper bound. The analysis of the efficiency of this extension is presented through two applications.     

Automated prediction system of household energy consumption in cities using web crawler and optimized artificial intelligence

The supply of electrical energy is critical to convenient and comfortable living. However, people consume a large amount of energy, contributing to an energy crisis and global warming, and damaging some ecological cycles. Residential electricity consumption has greater elasticity than industrial and business consumption; it therefore has high energy-saving potential. This work establishes an automated platform, which provides information about residential electricity consumption in each city in Taiwan. Machine learning was used to forecast future residential electricity demand. A nature-inspired optimization method was applied to enhance the accuracy of the best machine learner, yielding an even better hybrid ensemble model. Performance measures indicate that the resulting model is accurate and provides effective information for reference. An automatic web-based system based on the model was combined with a web crawler and scheduled to run automatically to provide information on monthly residential electricity consumption in each county and city. By providing energy consumption information across the country, power providers and government can discuss policy and set different goals for energy use. The results of this study can facilitate the early implementation of energy-saving and carbon emission-reducing in cities and aid utility companies in establishing energy conservation guidelines.     

基于节点1-邻居图相似性的社会网络匿名技术

利用传统的k匿名技术在社会网络中进行隐私保护时会存在聚类准则单一、图中数据信息利用不足等问题. 针对该问题, 提出了一种利用Kullback-Leibler (KL)散度衡量节点1-邻居图相似性的匿名技术(anonymization techniques for measuring the similarity of node 1-neighbor graph based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, SNKL). 根据节点1-邻居图分布的相似性对原始图节点集进行划分, 按照划分好的类进行图修改, 使修改后的图满足k匿名, 完成图的匿名发布. 实验结果表明, SNKL方法与HIGA方法相比在聚类系数上的改变量平均降低了17.3%, 同时生成的匿名图与原始图重要性节点重合度保持在95%以上. 所提方法在有效保证隐私的基础上, 可以显著的降低对原始图结构信息的改变.     

Mixture semisupervised principal component regression model and soft sensor application

Traditionally, data‐based soft sensors are constructed upon the labeled historical dataset which contains equal numbers of input and output data samples. While it is easy to obtain input variables such as temperature, pressure, and flow rate in the chemical process, the output variables, which correspond to quality/key property variables, are much more difficult to obtain. Therefore, we may only have a small number of output data samples, and have much more input data samples. In this article, a mixture form of the semisupervised probabilistic principal component regression model is proposed for soft sensor application, which can efficiently incorporate the unlabeled data information from different operation modes. Compared to the total supervised method, both modeling efficiency and soft sensing performance are improved with the inclusion of additional unlabeled data samples. Two case studies are provided to evaluate the feasibility and efficiency of the new method. © 2013 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J 60: 533–545, 2014     

Application of cross validation techniques for modelling construction costs during the very early design stage

Building client/owners need estimates of likely construction costs for budgeting purposes early in the procurement process when little detailed design information is available beyond the type, size and location of the facility. One of the more sophisticated techniques available for this purpose is the storey enclosure method, developed by James in 1954. This uses the basic physical measurements of the building envelope, together with an arbitrary set of multipliers, or weights, to forecast tender/bid prices. Although seldom used in practice, James succeeded in showing his method to be capable of significantly outperforming alternative approaches.

The research reported in this paper aimed firstly to reassess James’ claims with new data and secondly to advance his method by using regression techniques to obtain the weights involved. Based on data from 138 completed Hong Kong projects for four types of building, two types of regression models were developed. This involved the use of sophisticated features such as leave-one-out cross validation to simulate the way in which forecasts are produced in practice and a dual stepwise selection strategy that enhances the chance of identifying the best model. An algorithm was also designed to select the appropriate parametric and non-parametric tests for objective and rigorous model evaluation against alternatives.

The results indicate that, contrary to James’ claim, both his original method and the two regression-based alternatives are not significantly better or worse than other models. Surprisingly, the widely used floor area model was found to under-perform in terms of consistency for offices and private housing. For private housing in particular, it was felt that the storey enclosure method was likely to offer good prospects of improvement on those methods currently in use in practice.